Why I am even doing a piece about Best Actress confuses me – this award is so clearly going to Cate Blanchett, and no one else comes close. But I will try and justify a win for the others, just because on the slight chance there is a shocking upset.
- Amy Adams as Sydney Prosser in American Hustle
- Cate Blanchett as Jeanette “Jasmine” Francis in Blue Jasmine
- Sandra Bullock as Dr. Ryan Stone in Gravity
- Dame Judi Dench as Philomena Lee in Philomena
- Meryl Streep as Violet Weston in August: Osage County
Amy Adams will win one day, but it won’t be for American Hustle. Her performance was solid, but it was far from being flawless, and her previous work has been much better and more worthy of an Academy Award. She did win the Golden Globe, but I feel that was more to justify an American Hustle win as opposed to being a good precursor for the Academy Awards. Its a great performance, just not one worth of Best Actress.
There is no one quite like Judi Dench, who is so talented and so wise, we feel like we’re watching our own grandmother on screen. Her performance in Philomena should be a good winner for Best Actress, but it reminds me too much of previous Best Actress contenders – Julie Christie in Away from Her, Helen Mirren in The Last Station and Imelda Staunton in Vera Drake. In the cases of Christie and Mirren, they had been awarded before, so there is not really any rush to award them again. Its a shame because Hillary Swank has two Best Actress wins, and Judi Dench only has a Supporting Actress win for an extended cameo. She deserves better, and I wish she had a chance to win for this. But unfortunately not. But if there is an upset, it is for Dench.
Meryl Streep is wonderfully loud and crass in August: Osage County, and she gives a great performance. There isn’t much of a prayer for Streep to actually win this, but it is one of her better nominations, in my opinion. She will win her fourth (and possibly fifth) some day, but not this year.
I don’t see them rushing to give Sandra Bullock a win for Best Actress, and if they want to justify a Gravity win for Best Picture, they simply need to look at the several technical awards it is going to win, and how an acting award isn’t needed. It is a much better performance than her winning role in The Blind Side, but thank the lord for that win, because either way there isn’t a chance she would have won for this, not because she is bad but because the almost guaranteed winner would have just swept either way.
Cate Blanchett – that is all I’m saying. No one deserves a Best Actress win more than Cate Blanchett, and the fact that she was screwed over for Elizabeth is actually good because it allowed her to win for this amazing performance that will stand out as one of the best wins in Oscar history.
So here it is – the chances of each of the nominees winning:
Cate Blanchett: 75%
Judi Dench: 10%
Sandra Bullock: 7%
Meryl Streep: 6%
Amy Adams: 2%
Cate Blanchett will win, kiss Daniel Day-Lewis and give a killer speech, and it will be fantastic.