The State of the Oscars: Best Supporting Actress (The Winners)

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We come now to a category that is probably my favorite because there are three amazing performances in it. I think this category could pretty much go to any of the three ladies nominated, but there seem to be two overwhelming frontrunners, both of which are mediocre at best.

THE NOMINEES:
Sally Hawkins as Ginger in Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence as Rosalyn Rosenfeld in American Hustle
Lupita Nyong’o as Patsey in 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts as Barbara Weston-Fordham in August: Osage County
June Squibb as Kate Grant in Nebraska

What breaks my heart is that the people most likely to win this award are my bottom two on my personal rankings. But I am going to rank them in the likelihood of them winning, because accuracy is sometimes better than gut feelings.

Sally Hawkins receiving a nomination was a really pleasant surprise. To me, she gave a performance just as complex and tragic as Cate Blanchett, and personally I feel you can’t award Blanchett and not Hawkins, because they are a team, and a team that makes Blue Jasmine such a masterpiece.

Julia Roberts – oh boy, can this woman act! She returns to form with August: Osage County. She is loud, crass and gloriously artificial – a great performance if there ever was one. While some performances tell their stories through subtle little mannerisms and whispers, Roberts screams, curses and foams at the mouth – what a great performance.

June Squibb is such a sweet old lady, and it is sad that this might be the only time she gets nominated for an Academy Award. I think she could pull off the upset, considering her recent surge in popularity. I just hope the voters remember her and her adorable nature when it comes time to tick boxes.

Jennifer Lawrence is America’s sweetheart, and she deserves to be – she is quirky and bitter and sarcastic, and doesn’t fit the stereotypical role of complacent starlet. Will she win her second Oscar next Sunday? Probably. Does she deserve to? Nope. I think she might win, but I’m hoping she doesn’t.

Lupita Nyong’o is probably going to take this, and I will be quite upset if she does – her performance was less that memorable, and she really dissapointed me. We have no idea how talented she is because Patsey was very one-noted and had such minimal screentime. It would be one of the least impressive wins in Oscar history, but if she has to win, it will be because of a justification for a 12 Years a Slave win.

Here are the nominees’ chances at winning the Oscar:
Lupita Nyong’o: 33%
Jennifer Lawrence: 30%
June Squibb: 17%
Sally Hawkins: 12%
Julia Roberts: 8%

So this really is anybody’s game, so look out for an upset here.

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