This category is very near locked, but we could definitely see an upset, and there is always the chance that any of the nominees could receive a surge of support.
- Barkhad Abdi as Abduwali Muse in Captain Phillips
- Bradley Cooper as Richie DiMasso in American Hustle
- Michael Fassbender as Edwin Epps in 12 Years a Slave
- Jonah Hill as Donnie Azoff in The Wolf of Wall Street
- Jared Leto as Rayon in Dallas Buyers Club
I think we can say Jonah Hill was a complete and total surprise – who saw that coming? It is certainly a deserving nomination, and probably my favorite performance of the bunch. But let’s be honest – he’s not going to win, as much I’d like him to. But I wouldn’t rule out a mindblowing upset by him by voters who would like to award The Wolf of Wall Street.
Bradley Cooper would have a good shot at winning – he has a lead role in a film by David O. Russell, who is known to be an actor’s director. It is also Cooper’s second consecutive nomination, as is his co-stars Amy Adams and Jennifer Lawrence. The only reason Cooper isn’t a frontrunner is because he only got a surge in support later on in the race (one could argue with his Golden Globe nomination). If he received an earlier surge of support from various critics groups, he would be a strong contender for the win.
There is nothing quite like an unknown talent emerging and breaking through amazingly – Barkhad Abdi is the definition of rags to riches. It would be so amazing and inspiring to see a limo driver ending up being an Oscar winner, but unfortunately we may not. However, if there is an upset, it is obvious Abdi would be the go-to person (his BAFTA win implies that he is a strong second). However, the fact that he rode all the way to a nomination is such an inspiring story and I wish him only the best in the future.
Michael Fassbender has been screwed over by the Oscars for his work in films such as Shame and A Dangerous Method but no more! He finally broke through and earned a nomination for his wonderful work in 12 Years a Slave. If he hadn’t been such a fool and made such comments about not campaigning, he could have added an Oscar to his mantle. However, he clearly doesn’t want the Oscar, so maybe one day he will get one…
Jared Leto – the man has talent and blew audiences away in Dallas Buyers Club. However, his performance isn’t mindblowing or history-making, but its a good performance and come this Sunday he will be an Oscar winner.
Here are each of the nominee’s chances of winning on Sunday:
- Jared Leto: 71%
- Jonah Hill: 10%
- Barkhad Abdi: 9%
- Michael Fassbender: 7%
- Bradley Cooper: 3%
So bet against Leto at your peril – but if you’re in the mood for a risk, go with Abdi or Hill