The Big One now, folks. Best Picture is very tricky for anyone to decide, because unlike other categories, it is a combination of various factors that contribute to choosing a winner. This isn’t just like choosing the best performance or the film with the best writing or the film that is filmed most magnificently. It is a combination of everything about the film that converges into a single experience, and how does one decide which film gave them the best experience. Unfortunately, I have yet to see Philomena or Nebraska, so I will only be analysing this from the point of view of what I’ve seen and from what I’ve heard, and the trends over this awards season.
- 12 Years a Slave
- American Hustle
- Captain Phillips
- Dallas Buyers Club
- The Wolf of Wall Street
There are, in my eyes, only three viable contenders for this award…
12 Years a Slave has been sweeping up these awards from several groups, and I understand why – it is a historically important film, and one that is magnificent in its scope and achievements. However, it is probably my least favorite of the seven films I have seen – it was an important message and a film with great meaning, but it was very flawed. It will probably win, but will not stand as a great winner of this category.
American Hustle is one of my personal favourites of the category. I think this may be able to pull off the upset, but I’m thinking it may be too divisive. I would love to see it win Best Picture, because it is definitely the most deserving and passionately made. However, of the three it is the most unlikely to prevail
Gravity was a spectacular film and one that will clean up the technical awards, and it is a lock to win Best Director. I think it could end up winning Best Picture, and I would be ecstatic to see it – it will signify a new dawn of Best Picture winners, and it would be a deserving win, and I am hoping it can prevail – and it actually can.
Let’s be honest, none of the other six have any chance of winning. However, I must say this new system has allowed some great films (Dallas Buyers Club, Nebraska, Her) to be nominated, and it is really cool to see these films get top recognition.
Here are each of the nominee’s chances of winning:
- 12 Years a Slave = 25%
- Gravity = 22%
- American Hustle = 20%
- Captain Phillips = 10%
- Dallas Buyers Club = 7%
- Her = 6%
- Nebraska = 5%
- The Wolf of Wall Street = 3%
- Philomena = 2%
So in conclusion, I am going to hold out hope for American Hustle or Gravity to end up winning Best Picture, but in the end it will go to 12 Years a Slave